杭州市一审在4月下旬裁定企业不得以人工智能取代员工，这在阿里巴巴拥有12.8万名员工、近期经历了严格裁员的背景下，缓解了就业焦虑，也给依赖租金的商业物业所有者带来短期支撑。更广泛看，自2021年楼市下行以来，全国约有9000万套住房空置，办公物业过剩持续存在，部分内陆城市甚至出现了40%以上的甲级办公楼空置率。

在深圳及其他科技中心，科技监管收紧和前疫情项目持续入市后，科技企业新增办公室需求在2022年第二季度同比下降50%；甲级空置率由2019年的约20%上升到峰值30%，武汉核心区空置的优质办公物业面积甚至约等于200个足球场，部分内陆城市甲级空置率超过40%。相比之下，伦敦市中心去年底仍保持93%入住率，而瑞银数据显示，3月中国AI企业需求为去年同期的3倍，杭州和深圳的甲级空置率已回落到约20%。

业内普遍认为，4月下旬开业的杭州西湖66等地标项目有望被科技公司吸纳，加上政府对创新企业提供租金补贴、并压缩商业地产供应和土地出让，可能推高未来租金。判决有望支撑短期内的办公地产小幅反弹，但其可持续性仍不确定，因为3月AI需求主要集中于会计、律师、咨询等后端和支持岗位——而这些正是AI代理预期将优先替代的职能。

A Hangzhou court ruling in late April barred firms from replacing staff with AI, which eased workforce anxiety in a city dominated by Alibaba’s 128,000-person payroll and provided short-term relief for landlords in a stressed office market. More broadly, China’s 2021 property downturn has left around 90 million homes empty and created a large office oversupply, with some inland cities reporting over 40% vacancy in grade-A offices.

In Shenzhen and other tech hubs, tougher tech enforcement and the release of pre-COVID projects cut new office demand by 50% in Q2 2022; grade-A vacancy rose from about 20% in 2019 to a 30% peak, with Wuhan said to have idle prime office space worth about 200 football pitches, while some inland cities are above 40% vacant. London’s central prime stock still had 93% occupancy at year-end, while UBS said March AI demand was three times the previous year, bringing grade-A vacancies in Hangzhou and Shenzhen back to about 20%.

Analysts expect flagship projects like Hangzhou’s Westlake 66, opened in late April, to be absorbed by tech firms, supported by rent subsidies and tighter land supply, which could eventually push up prices. The ruling may sustain a near-term office rebound, but whether it becomes durable depends on future AI substitution; the March hiring surge was concentrated in back-office and support roles such as accounting and legal work—the very roles AI agents are expected to replace.

Source: DeepSeek and Alibaba rescue China’s office landlords

Subtitle: Technology firms are reviving (a few) Chinese commercial-property markets

Dateline: 5月 07, 2026 06:28 上午 | Hangzhou