民调显示波美关系显著降温：仅31%的波兰人认为双边关系良好，为1988年以来最低；另有30%的人认为美国是可靠盟友，说明信任已降至不足三分之一。与此同时，尽管相较“欧洲自主”波兰人仍更看重对美关系，整体趋势仍是支持度与确定性的同步下滑。

制度与安全层面的数字揭示了矛盾并存：波兰去年国防开支达GDP的4.5%，为北约最高，并持续大规模采购美国武器。与此同时，总理图斯克与总统纳夫罗茨基围绕是否加入特朗普倡议及是否放行欧盟SAFE贷款（€43.7bn，约$51.5bn）发生冲突，而政府联盟成员新左翼仅占460席中的18席，凸显政治杠杆与席位规模不匹配。

政治僵局的强度可由立法数据量化：现任总统上任前六个月否决25项法案，已超过前任十年的否决总数，直接拖慢堕胎法与司法改革。经济指标则形成反差支撑，GDP增长3.6%、失业率3.2%（欧盟第二低）帮助执政联盟扩大对PiS的民调领先，但“亲美”议题已从共识转为新的社会分裂轴线。

Polling shows a sharp cooling in U.S.-Poland ties: only 31% of Poles rate bilateral relations as good, the lowest share since 1988, and only 30% view America as a reliable ally, indicating trust has fallen below one-third. At the same time, Poles still prioritize ties with America over “European autonomy,” but the aggregate trend is declining support and confidence.

Numbers in security and institutions show a contradiction: Poland lifted defense spending to 4.5% of GDP last year, the highest in NATO, while continuing large U.S. arms purchases. In parallel, Prime Minister Tusk and President Nawrocki are clashing over Trump-linked alignment and over unlocking EU SAFE loans (€43.7bn, about $51.5bn), while New Left holds just 18 of 460 parliamentary seats, underscoring leverage that exceeds seat share.

The political deadlock is quantifiable in legislative throughput: the new president vetoed 25 bills in his first six months, already more than his predecessor did in a decade, slowing abortion-law and judiciary reforms. Economic data pull the other way, with 3.6% GDP growth and 3.2% unemployment (second-lowest in the EU) helping the governing camp widen its polling lead over PiS, even as support for America shifts from consensus to a new fault line.

Source: Poles have split and soured on America

Subtitle: Donald Trump is exhausting goodwill in Europe’s most pro-American country

Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:17 上午 | Warsaw