世界银行上调了 2026 年增长预测，称在“历史性”贸易紧张升级下，全球经济表现出“显著”的韧性。其最新报告将 2026 年全球实际 GDP 增速预测从 6 月的 2.4% 上调至 2.6%；美国 2026 年增速预估从 1.6% 明显上调至 2.2%。

报告称，2025 年增长强于此前预期，估计达到 2.7%，而 2026 年 2.6% 属于温和放缓。推动 2025 年的因素包括：在特朗普关税预期下企业与家庭抢先进口带来的贸易“脉冲”，高进口关税的实际拖累小于预估，以及情报与 AI 相关支出带来的支撑。世界银行指出 2023 年以来全球增速一直在 2.6%–2.8% 区间内波动，低于疫情前十年 3.2% 的平均水平，体现“韧性存在但不加速”的区间化趋势。

风险仍偏向下行：若关税再度上升并将出口改道第三国，可能触发这些国家国内生产者寻求更多贸易保护。分项预测显示：中国 2025 年增速预期为 4.9%，2026 年为 4.4%，均较此前上调；2026 年全球通胀或回落至 2.6%，较此前预测低 0.3 个百分点；布伦特原油 2026 年均价预测为 60 美元/桶，低于 2025 年 69 美元/桶的平均水平。就业压力被量化为新增劳动力：未来十年新兴市场将有 12 亿年轻人达到工作年龄。

The World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast, calling global resilience “notable” despite an “historic” escalation in trade tensions. Its latest report lifts projected 2026 real GDP growth from 2.4% in June to 2.6%; the US outlook is marked up sharply to 2.2% from 1.6%.

The Bank says 2025 growth came in stronger than it had anticipated at an estimated 2.7%, implying a modest slowdown to 2.6% in 2026. It attributes 2025’s strength to a trade “burst” as firms and households rushed imports ahead of Trump tariffs, a smaller-than-expected drag from high import levies, and a boost from intelligence and AI-related spending. It also characterizes recent performance as range-bound: since 2023 global growth has stayed between 2.6% and 2.8%, below the 3.2% average in the decade before the pandemic, signaling resilience without acceleration.

Risks remain tilted to the downside: renewed tariff escalation could redirect exports to third countries and spur domestic producers there to demand protection from import competition. The report’s key numeric revisions include China at 4.9% growth in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026 (both higher than previously expected), 2026 global inflation edging down to 2.6% (0.3 percentage point lower than prior projections), and Brent crude falling to $60 per barrel in 2026 from a $69 average in 2025. It flags job creation as urgent because 1.2 billion young people in emerging markets will reach working age over the next decade.