中国的机器人出租车企业，如百度的Apollo Go、小马智行和文远知行，已部署超过1,000辆自动驾驶汽车，Apollo Go计划到2027年在全球运营20,000辆。分析师预计到2035年中国机器人出租车保有量约为190万辆，占网约车车辆的25%，收入接近500亿美元，而瑞银则估算到2030年代末中国市场规模可能接近1,800亿美元，在50多个测试城市和至少十个商业运营城市快速铺开。
成本优势构成中国的结构性强项：汇丰估计中国平均每辆机器人出租车约4万美元，而Waymo在美国的车辆成本为13万至20万美元不等，百度与江铃合作的RT6价格更低至3.5万美元。由禾赛领衔的四家中国企业控制了全球约90%的激光雷达市场，但运营商仍普遍亏损，高盛预计中国机器人出租车行业要到2032年前后才能在一线城市实现运营盈亏平衡，而在小城市仍将因车费和司机薪酬水平偏低而持续亏损。
竞争与监管摩擦进一步增加复杂度，滴滴掌控中国约70%的网约车市场，却不大可能像Uber那样开放平台，迫使其他机器人出租车公司依赖自有应用或小型合作伙伴，同时在2024年上半年新增70多项自动驾驶监管规定，北京和上海也实施严格限制。看到海外更大的机会后，中国企业已在包括卢森堡、迪拜、阿布扎比、首尔、香港及部分欧洲地区在内的至少六个境外市场展开测试或商业化，瑞银估计除中国和美国以外的全球机器人出租车市场到2030年代末将超过2,100亿美元。
Chinese robotaxi firms such as Baidu’s Apollo Go, Pony.ai and WeRide have deployed over 1,000 self-driving cars, with Apollo Go targeting 20,000 robotaxis globally by 2027. Analysts project China’s fleet to reach about 1.9m robotaxis by 2035, representing 25% of ride-hailing vehicles and generating revenues near $50bn, with UBS estimating the national robotaxi market could grow toward $180bn by the late 2030s amid rapid rollout across 50+ test cities and at least ten commercial hubs.
Costs provide a structural edge: HSBC estimates an average Chinese robotaxi costs roughly $40,000, versus $130,000–$200,000 for Waymo’s US vehicles, while Baidu’s RT6 is priced around $35,000. Four Chinese lidar makers led by Hesai now control about 90% of the global lidar market, yet operators remain loss-making, with Goldman Sachs expecting operating break-even only around 2032 in China’s biggest cities and continued losses in smaller markets due to low fares and driver wages.
Competitive and regulatory frictions add complexity, as Didi controls about 70% of China’s ride-hailing but is unlikely to open its platform, forcing rivals to rely on their own apps or smaller partners amid more than 70 new autonomous-driving regulations introduced in early 2024 and tight restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai. Sensing larger opportunities abroad, Chinese robotaxi players are testing or operating in at least six non-Chinese markets including Luxembourg, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Seoul, Hong Kong and parts of Europe, while UBS values the ex-China, non-US robotaxi market at over $210bn by the late 2030s.