文章把特朗普对古巴的施压与其对伊朗的做法作类比，指出两者都延续了“推翻前任协议并改造对手”的逻辑，但古巴的战略分量远小。古巴约有900万人口，仅为伊朗9300万的约十分之一，且在前任总统签署的重要协议后已不具核威胁，因此美国博弈核心更多落在石油与经济杠杆上。

特朗普视角的核心也体现为石油即筹码：控制油源就能掌握谈判主动权。

在替换委内瑞拉领导人后，特朗普切断了古巴廉价石油来源，并且自1月末起以关税威胁堵死其来自其他渠道的油供应，结果古巴只能自给约40%电力所需燃料。随着美元流入渠道持续被封堵，古巴老化电网本月已瘫痪三次，导致全国停电并中断通信，医疗、食品、交通等系统性危机随之叠加。

The article compares Trump's pressure on Cuba to his Iran policy, arguing both follow a pattern of undoing prior agreements and seeking leverage, but with far lower strategic weight in Cuba. Cuba has about 9 million people, roughly one-tenth of Iran's 93 million, and after major diplomacy in the previous administration it no longer poses a nuclear threat, so the bargaining game is framed more around oil and economic leverage.

After the replacement in Venezuela, Trump cut Cuba's source of cheap oil, and tariff pressure has blocked oil supplies from elsewhere since late January, leaving Cuba able to produce only about 40% of its fuel needs. As foreign-currency channels are repeatedly constrained, Cuba's aging grid has collapsed three times this month, causing nationwide blackouts and telecom outages while health, food, transport, and communications pressures compound.

The piece then looks back to history: a 1950s-era Havana boom, a decade-long embargo beginning in 1960, Trump's 1998 Cuban investment interest, and his trademark filing ten years later. Despite repeated official rhetoric on sovereignty, democracy, and human rights, the article suggests Trump's real objective is a regime that buys U.S. goods and services—any label is acceptable to him—while an endless blockade risks generating another refugee wave after decades of isolation.

Source: For Donald Trump, Cuba is everything Iran is not

Subtitle: A breakthrough is in his grasp. But his idea of progress may be a throwback to another era

Dateline: 3月 26, 2026 08:20 上午