德里每年短暂的蓝天掩盖不了现实：这座拥有3000万人口的城市空气污染全年存在。2024年它“良好”空气天数为0天，“满意”天数仅65天（约占全年18%），而且类似恶化正从北方向加尔各答、孟买和印度南部扩散。

危机扩大的主要驱动因素包括机动车保有量上升、走走停停的拥堵交通、持续道路与建筑施工产生的扬尘，以及城市边缘砖窑排放。代价同样巨大：与污染相关的年死亡人数约170万，2019年估算的经济损失为GDP的3%，约是“50%美国关税”造成0.6%GDP冲击的5倍，但2月1日预算反而削减了污染治理资金且官方仍在淡化因果关系。

现在趋势已从长期慢性损害转为可见的短期经济冲击。2025年第四季度零售企业已报告客流与消费增长受抑，北印度每年冬季有数百架次航班因能见度下降取消，人才流失与国际赛事受扰（包括一名球员因空气质量退赛并被罚5000美元）共同指向同一风险：污染正在直接威胁到2047年“富裕国家”目标。

Delhi’s brief annual blue-sky spell masks a persistent reality: this city of 30 million faces air pollution year-round. In 2024 it logged 0 “good” air days and only 65 “satisfactory” days (about 18% of the year), and similar deterioration is spreading beyond the north to Kolkata, Mumbai, and southern India.

The widening crisis is driven by rising vehicle ownership, stop-start gridlock, dust from nonstop road and construction activity, and emissions from peri-urban brick kilns. The costs are severe: about 1.7 million pollution-linked deaths annually, and a 2019 estimate of economic damage at 3% of GDP, roughly 5 times the 0.6% GDP hit attributed to temporary 50% US tariffs, yet the February 1 budget cut pollution-control funding while officials still downplay causality.

The trend has shifted from chronic background harm to visible near-term economic disruption. In Q4 2025 retailers reported weaker mobility and consumption growth, hundreds of winter flights across north India were canceled for low visibility, and talent and sports signals (including a player withdrawing over air quality despite a $5,000 fine) all indicate the same risk: pollution is now directly threatening the 2047 rich-country ambition.

Source: India’s pollution is becoming an economic roadblock

Subtitle: The government’s inaction runs counter to its own goals

Dateline: 2月 19, 2026 04:37 上午