规模达32万亿美元的美国国债市场作为全球金融体系的首要安全资产，正面临着结构性压力。其未偿债务在过去三年中以年均8%的速度增长，美国在七国集团（G7）政府债务中的份额已从二十年前的38%上升到如今的60%，预计该市场将在不到十年的时间内扩大到50万亿美元。

与此同时，可靠投资者（包括银行、外国央行和美联储）持有的国债份额已降至不足三分之一，创下30年来的最低水平。他们已被对冲基金等追求收益的买家所取代，这增加了市场紧张时期的流动性风险，正如美联储在2019年9月和2023年3月干预资金市场以恢复流动性时所表现的那样。

此外，通货膨胀、利率上升和政策多变进一步削弱了国债的安全避风港地位，今年早些时候十年期国债收益率从4%升至4.3%，而标准普尔500指数下跌了8%。随着穆迪将联邦政府的信用评级下调，人们越来越担心该市场可能会丧失其基准地位，从而推高全球的借贷成本。

The $32 trillion US Treasury market, the global financial system's premier safe asset, faces structural strains. Outstanding debt has grown by 8% annually over the last three years, America's share of G7 government debt has risen from 38% two decades ago to 60% today, and projections indicate the market will expand to $50 trillion in under ten years.

Concurrently, the ownership of Treasuries by dependable investors—including banks, foreign central banks, and the Federal Reserve—has fallen to less than a third, the lowest share in 30 years. They have been replaced by yield-seeking buyers like hedge funds, increasing liquidity risks during market stress as seen when the Fed intervened in funding markets to restore liquidity in September 2019 and March 2023.

Furthermore, Treasuries' safe-haven status is eroded by inflation, rising rates, and policy caprice, highlighted by ten-year yields rising from 4% to 4.3% while the S&P 500 fell 8% earlier this year. As Moody's demoted the federal government's credit rating, concerns grow that the market could forfeit its benchmark status, raising borrowing costs globally.

Source: The special role of the Treasury market is in peril

Subtitle: Government debt, inflation and unpredictable policymaking are putting the world’s most important asset under threat, argues Mike Bird in a special report

Dateline: June 4th 2026