在特朗普执政下，美联储运作已成政治角力场：特朗普在社交平台上公开羞辱杰罗姆·鲍威尔，并发起对美联储办公楼修缮账目的司法部调查。沃什一月接任时，市场曾普遍预期2026年前至少会有一到两次降息（甚至更多），但这既不足以把联邦基金利率从3.5%–3.75%降到特朗普偶尔要求的约1%，也很快被通胀环境的变化抵消。
伊朗战争把油价推升至每桶约95美元，较美国与以色列于二月末袭击伊朗之前高出约三分之一，4月10日公布的官方数据显示三月CPI同比上升到3.3%，从二月的2.4%上升。关税冲击对商品价格主要是“抬高水平”而非“抬高增速”，但剔除房租后的服务类通胀（如理发、租车、手机套餐）仍比2010年代通胀长期约2%目标期间高出约0.5个百分点，显示通胀压力并未消退。
沃什“AI降息”论据在理论和事实层面都受挫：若AI确实快速显著提升生产率，中性利率可能上升而非下降，而目前最明显的AI影响是对数据中心的巨额投资。杰弗逊、Barr与鲍威尔都否认AI是立即降息信号，鲍威尔称其不构成短期降息理由；同时其董事会任期到2028年、4月15日后可能继续留任（或以临时主席延任），再加上司法调查未了，意味着沃什对白宫解释“不能降息”将更艰难。
Under Trump, running the Federal Reserve has become highly politicized: Trump publicly mocked Powell and triggered a DOJ inquiry into the Fed’s renovation billing. When Warsh was nominated in January, markets had expected one or two or more rate cuts by 2026, yet that view faded once inflation dynamics worsened, and even those cuts would not have brought the 3.5%–3.75% policy range near Trump’s occasional 1% target demand.
The Iran war pushed oil to about $95 a barrel, roughly a third above pre-strike levels, and official data released April 10 showed headline inflation at 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February. While tariff shocks raised goods-price levels rather than rates, services inflation excluding housing is still running about 0.5 percentage points above the 2010s average, when inflation hovered around the Fed’s 2% target, indicating disinflation is incomplete.
Warsh’s AI-driven case for easing is weakened both conceptually and factually: if AI rapidly and strongly lifts productivity, the neutral rate should rise, not fall, and the most visible AI effect so far is large-scale data-center investment. Fed officials Jefferson, Barr, and Powell all rejected the claim that AI warrants immediate cuts, with Powell saying AI is not an immediate signal to lower rates, and legal-political constraints—including his 2028 governor term and a possible delay due to the DOJ probe—make it even harder for Warsh to justify fast cuts to the White House.
Source: America’s next Fed chair is caught in a vice
Subtitle: Inflation was heating up even before the war in Ira
Dateline: 4月 16, 2026 04:16 上午 | Washington, DC