巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国（海湾合作委员会成员）的主权财富基金近年大幅扩容，2021年以来已合计部署逾4,300亿美元，并且每投入1美元石油美元大约有0.75美元流向海外，资产管理规模也从2021年的3万亿美元升至超过5万亿美元。其投资风格此前偏向高增长领域，包括人工智能、私募信贷、足球俱乐部和科技驱动的消费平台，以期实现化石能源后的经济转型。

战争对这一布局造成了冲击：据估计，伊朗袭击已摧毁价值250亿美元的油气基础设施，并可能进一步需要3,000亿到5,000亿美元建设绕开霍尔木兹海峡的管道，同时还要增加防务储备。上一次危机中阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）与科威特投资局分别撤资240亿美元和250亿美元，约占各自管理资产的3%至4%，阿联酋和卡塔尔基金已向本国航空公司追加4,000万美元?;更准确是40亿美元——资本调用压力再次显著上升。

近五年内，阿联酋和沙特工具类财富渠道在AI初创企业与数据中心上的投入分别接近1,000亿美元和400亿美元，2021—2025年间又有约1,400亿美元流向物业和基础设施、约800亿美元流向私募信贷，导致流动性更脆弱。战争下酒店入住率与日均房价下滑、机场与航空复苏受阻，以及利雅得500亿美元的Mukaab项目停工、Trojena与The Line合同延期等迹象，都使资金更可能转向本土现金流资产与重建优先，而非继续大规模押注高风险增长项目。

GCC sovereign wealth funds from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have expanded rapidly, deploying over US$430 billion since 2021, with roughly US$0.75 of every invested petrodollar routed abroad, while assets under management rose from US$3 trillion to more than US$5 trillion. Their positioning had already tilted toward growth bets—AI, private credit, football clubs, and platform-driven consumer technology—to prepare for a post-fossil-fuel economy.

War has disrupted that strategy: Iran’s strikes are estimated to have destroyed US$25 billion in oil-and-gas infrastructure, with a possible additional US$30–50 billion needed for pipeline bypasses of the Strait of Hormuz and higher defense replenishment. In the prior crisis, ADIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority withdrew US$24 billion and US$25 billion respectively (about 3%–4% of AUM), while Emirati and Qatari funds have put US$4 billion into their national carriers, indicating renewed pressure for recapitalization rather than fresh offshore deployment.

Liquidity is now more constrained by prior allocation choices: over the past five years, Abu Dhabi and Saudi channels invested roughly US$100 billion and US$40 billion respectively in AI startups and data centers, and GCC sovereign capital added about US$140 billion to property and infrastructure and US$80 billion to private credit between 2021 and 2025. Weakened domestic cash flows are visible in hotel occupancy and room-rate declines, delayed airport and airline recovery, and suspension or delay of projects such as Riyadh’s US$50 billion Mukaab, Trojena, and The Line, making a pivot toward domestic cash-generation and reconstruction increasingly likely even if only one of six Gulf sovereign funds has exited a deal in the past month.

Source: War will drain the Gulf’s $6trn treasure chest

Subtitle: The conflict complicates life for the custodians of Middle Eastern oil fortunes

Dateline: 4月 16, 2026 05:30 上午 | DUBAI