Netflix 以 720 亿美元现金加股票收购华纳兄弟探索公司,连同债务交易总值达 830 亿美元,是科技巨头进军好莱坞的里程碑,比亚马逊收购米高梅及 007 特许经营权的 85 亿美元大得多。这笔交易把 Netflix 的串流规模与华纳旗下哈利波特、DC 宇宙以及 HBO 等内容结合,押注拥有内容胜过仅仅授权。
交易预期每年可透过裁撤重复开支节省约 25 亿美元,相当于华纳去年营收的约 6%。在这些综效下,2026 年预估的企业价值自约 25 倍 Ebitda 降至约 14 倍,更接近过往影业并购约 15 至 22 倍的估值区间,同时让 Netflix 未来不必再为华纳或其他持有人支付高额授权费。
但财务与执行风险沉重:Netflix 需新增 500 亿美元借款并承担 110 亿美元净债务,以支付每股 27.75 美元、以现金为主的收购价;自 10 月中以来股价已下跌逾 15%。批评者担心文化整合、IP 疲劳与反垄断审查,并警告这笔逾 800 亿美元的收购可能分散公司从自建内容与有机成长中创造价值的能力。
Netflix is acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion in cash and stock, or $83 billion when including debt. This deal is significantly larger than Amazon’s $8.5 billion purchase of MGM. The merger would combine Netflix’s streaming platform with Warner’s valuable assets, such as the Harry Potter series, DC Comics, and HBO. Management believes that distributing this vast library to a wider subscriber base will justify the massive investment.
The projected cost savings are about $2.5 billion annually, which eliminates overlaps and accounts for roughly 6% of Warner's previous revenue. These synergies lower the implied 2026 valuation from 25 times EBITDA to around 14 times, aligning it more with typical studio deal multiples of 15 to 22 times. Additionally, having control over content means Netflix will have less reliance on costly licensing agreements with Warner or competitors.
Financing is heavy: Netflix must raise $50 billion in new borrowing and assume $11 billion of Warner's net debt to fund the largely cash $27.75 per share offer. Investors are feeling skeptical about the deal, as evidenced by Netflix's stock dropping over 15% since mid-October due to rising expectations. Critics point to several risks, including challenges with cultural integration, potential franchise fatigue, regulatory issues, and concerns that a hefty acquisition could distract Netflix from creating new content organically.