文本把伊索寓言重读为国家安全寓言：男孩三次喊“狼来了”，但村庄也没有建立真实攻击触发的防御。现代自由民主国家同样面对真实“狼”——俄罗斯威慑、对美国安全供给的替代、对中国关键矿产与绿色技术主导的依赖——而这些问题都昂贵且可能灾难性。

中间派现任者的支持率处于低位：英国基尔·斯塔默为20%，法国埃马纽埃尔·马克龙为22%，德国弗里德里希·默茨只有16%的选民“有些满意”，而澳大利亚安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯的中左联盟以41%显得相对强势。与此同时，反移民的一国党领袖宝琳·汉森首次获得多数澳大利亚人认可，显示民粹竞争者正在上升。

文章认为，民粹主义者通过否认风险来消除政策取舍：德国选择党淡化俄罗斯威胁，法国极左派主张离开北约，英国改革党和德国选择党反对净零政策，澳大利亚一国党质疑人为气候变化。最可信的温和派应承认资源有限，优先保护最敏感技术和紧急脆弱点，同时避免反复高喊“狼来了”式的灾难警告，因为这会削弱公众信任。

The text rereads Aesop’s fable as a national-security parable: the boy cries “Wolf!” three times, but the village also lacks defences triggered by a real attack. Modern liberal democracies face real “wolves” too—deterring Russia, replacing American security provision, and reducing dependence on China’s dominance in critical minerals and green technologies—all costly problems with catastrophic potential.

Centrist incumbents have weak approval: Britain’s Keir Starmer is at 20%, France’s Emmanuel Macron at 22%, Germany’s Friedrich Merz has only 16% of voters “somewhat satisfied”, while Australia’s Anthony Albanese looks relatively strong with 41% approval for his centre-left coalition. Meanwhile, anti-immigration One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has won majority approval in Australia for the first time, showing rising populist competition.

The article argues that populists erase policy trade-offs by denying risks: Germany’s AfD downplays Russia, France’s hard left urges leaving NATO, Reform UK and the AfD oppose net-zero policies, and Australia’s One Nation questions man-made climate change. The most credible moderates should admit scarce resources, prioritise sensitive technologies and urgent vulnerabilities, and avoid repeated “Wolf!”-style catastrophe warnings that erode public trust.

Source: Centrists crying “Wolf!”

Subtitle: The wrong way to beat populists who deny the existence of hard problems

Dateline: 5月 28, 2026 03:25 上午