世纪之交，欧盟超过三分之二的公民生活在中左翼领导的国家；到2016年，这一比例已降至三分之一。如今27个欧盟国家中只有3个由进步派领导：西班牙、丹麦和马耳他，而他们合计只代表欧盟人口的十分之一。

这种局面甚至可能进一步收缩。丹麦首相弗雷德里克森在3月选举后首次组阁失败，她所在的社民党也创下逾一个世纪以来最差成绩，而德国、法国等大国的中左翼同样缺乏接班人和稳定民意支撑。

在欧盟前十大发达成员国中，只有荷兰的社会党/左翼联盟在民调中勉强领先，而且四年后才选举；德国社民党全国民调仅13%，法国社会党候选人在2022年只拿到1.8%的票。左翼受挤压的原因包括去工业化、政党碎片化，以及选民向绿党、马克思主义者、温和中间派和右翼民粹的分流。

At the turn of the century, more than two-thirds of EU citizens lived in countries led by centre-left politicians; by 2016, that share had fallen to one-third. Today only three of the EU’s 27 national leaders are progressives, and they represent just one-tenth of the bloc’s population.

The downturn may deepen: Mette Frederiksen failed her first attempt to form a coalition after March’s election, and her Social Democrats had their worst result in well over a century. Mr Sánchez faces voters within about a year and trails the centre-right, while the Netherlands is the only one of the EU’s ten biggest countries where the left has a narrow polling lead.

The centre-left is weakest in major states, with Germany’s SPD at 13% in national polls and France’s socialist camp lacking a strong presidential contender after its 2022 candidate won only 1.8%. The left’s decline is linked to deindustrialization, but also to fragmentation: votes have drifted to Greens, hard-left rivals, centrist defectors, and right-wing populists.

Source: Socialism is being left behind in Europe

Subtitle: The workers’ parties aren’t working

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:24 上午