在经历了两个月的总统威胁、并出现自2003年入侵伊拉克以来中东最大规模的空海军集结后，2月24日的国情咨文却只用几分钟谈及伊朗，且提出只要德黑兰重申“永不拥有核武器”就可避免冲突。政策目标在核限制、导弹削减、威慑镇压乃至政权更迭之间摇摆，而在以色列与伊朗6月12天战争的高潮中，美国已打击伊朗三处主要核设施，且第三轮美伊会谈原定于2月26日举行。
到去年春天，伊朗已将超过400公斤铀浓缩到接近武器级，若再进一步提纯，理论上足够制造10枚核弹，显示其核能力在数量上已跨过关键门槛。尽管特朗普宣称“彻底摧毁”，更接近的数据趋势是能力被削弱而非清零：关键环节失效、库存可能仍埋于废墟下，且联合国核机构负责人10月称伊朗似乎已不再进行铀浓缩。
民意与政治信号同样显示战略失焦：Economist/YouGov最新调查仅27%美国人支持打击伊朗，约等于每4人中仅1人支持。再加上官员先称伊朗“距武器级仅一周”，两天后总统又称其核项目已“被炸得粉碎”，这组时间上紧邻却逻辑互斥的表述削弱了“紧迫威胁”的可信度，并放大了“先讨论怎么打、后决定为何打”的决策倒置。
After two months of presidential threats and the largest U.S. air-naval build-up in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion, the February 24 state-of-the-union spent only minutes on Iran and said conflict could be avoided if Tehran repeated that it would never seek nuclear weapons. Objectives have oscillated among nuclear limits, missile rollback, coercive punishment, and regime change, even after U.S. strikes on three main Iranian nuclear sites during the climax of the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, with a third U.S.-Iran talk round scheduled for February 26.
By last spring, Iran had enriched over 400 kg of uranium to near-weapons grade, a quantity cited as enough for 10 bombs with further refinement, marking a critical quantitative threshold. Despite claims of “obliteration,” the harder trend data suggest degradation rather than elimination: key components are defunct, the highly enriched stockpile is likely buried, and the UN nuclear chief said in October that Iran no longer appeared to be enriching uranium.
Public and political signals reinforce strategic drift: the latest Economist/YouGov poll shows only 27% of Americans support striking Iran, roughly 1 in 4. Combined with officials saying Iran was “a week away” from weapons-grade capability and, two days later, the president saying the program had been “blown to smithereens,” this near-term contradiction weakens the credibility of an urgent-threat case and magnifies a policy inversion of debating how to fight before deciding why.
Source: Americans have no idea what Donald Trump wants from Ira
Subtitle: The president himself may be among them
Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 07:45 上午 | DUBAI