黄金传统上被视为抵御资产崩溃的工具，因为它几乎不产生现金流；若资产只靠估值上升才盈利，则黄金不符合这一标准，但其历史作用是对冲危机并非全无。文章指出，俄乌战争期间（2022）和伊朗革命后（1979）金价上升，然而自2月28日美以开战以来，黄金已下跌约15%，跌幅超过全球股市。
文中解释了两个机制：当美国债券实际利率上升时，黄金会受压；过去一年中，十年期美国国债“实际收益率”已上升0.3个百分点。黄金在10月—3月的“防御性”预期下仍下滑，且土耳其在3月20日前两周抛售约80亿美元、波兰央行官员也讨论套现涨幅，用于支撑本币或财政支出，这类行为会放大卖压。
进一步的解释是“数字黄金”叙事被加密货币侵蚀：比特币本想替代黄金避险属性，却更多跟随投机情绪。过去一年黄金ETF持仓量同比增长25%，约4,200吨，配合上次夏季至2月末约60%的上涨，现阶段出现“去杠杆式”抛售；当抛售者偏向交易性资金而非对冲货币贬值需求时，黄金会暂时失去其“避险”地位。
Gold is often defended as a hedge against systemic stress, yet it is unlike bonds and equities because it has no coupons or dividends; its economic case is therefore more about preserving purchasing power than generating yield. Historical episodes support this reputation—gold rose in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and also during oil-market disruption after the 1979 Iranian revolution—but since February 28, after the U.S.-Israel air campaign against Iran began, gold has dropped roughly 15%, a decline greater than global equities.
The fall is linked in part to higher real yields, which reached up by 0.3 percentage points on 10-year U.S. Treasuries and reflect inflation and policy-rate expectations that reduce the relative appeal of a non-yielding asset. Central-bank behavior also matters: Turkey sold about $8bn in gold in the fortnight to March 20 to defend the lira, with India and Poland reportedly considering similar profit-taking, a move that can accelerate downside when reserves are rebalanced.
A second framing is that gold now competes with Bitcoin’s failed “digital gold” role, as speculative positioning rather than pure collateral demand has grown in both markets. Gold surged about 60% from last summer to late February while gold ETF holdings rose 25% year-on-year to around 4,200 tonnes; the current pullback resembles the unwinding of those leveraged meme-style bets. Gold may regain safe-haven credibility if debasement hedging demand dominates, but timing depends on whether inflation-risk demand can outlast profit-taking and substitution trade flows.
Source: After Iran, gold is looking less glittery
Subtitle: Is the yellow metal the new crypto?
Dateline: 4月 01, 2026 03:22 上午