彭博社2月9日报道称，中国监管部门警告商业银行不要持有过多美国国债，并要求部分银行削减敞口，消息令全球投资者警觉，美元兑人民币下跌且美债价格波动。其要点并非新的地缘政治威胁，而是降低对美元资产过度集中带来的损失风险，因为中国银行此前偏好收益更高的美元债。

2月11日公布的数据表明，截至1月的同比通胀仅0.2%，猪肉价格下跌14%抵消了金饰价格上涨77%的影响，而“出厂价”口径已下行多年。与此同时，人民币与美元的近期波动减轻了汇率对政策的约束，使央行更容易考虑宽松；人民银行政策利率自去年5月以来一直维持在1.4%。

但宽松仍受银行盈利能力掣肘：存款利率与贷款利率之间的息差降至创纪录的1.4%，显著低于监管建议的1.8%，并助长以低价贷款与高价揽储争夺业务的无序竞争。随着大量三年期与五年期存款在2026年到期、可按更低利率重新定价，多数经济学家预计仅会有一次或两次每次0.1个百分点的降息；若增长可能低于下月公布的4.5-5%官方目标，央行可能从“观望”转向更快行动，而一些指标显示通缩在两年多前已出现。

Bloomberg reported on February 9 that China’s regulators warned commercial banks against holding too many U.S. Treasuries and told some to cut exposure, prompting global attention as the dollar fell against the yuan and Treasury prices wobbled. The thrust was not a new geopolitical threat but a risk-management move to limit losses from concentrated dollar-bond exposure that had been attractive for higher returns.

Figures released on February 11 show year-on-year inflation to January at only 0.2%, with pork prices down 14% offsetting gold-jewellery prices up 77%, while a factory-gate measure has been falling for years. Recent currency moves also ease an exchange-rate constraint on monetary policy, making rate cuts easier to contemplate as the PBoC’s policy rate has stayed at 1.4% since last May.

Easing is still constrained by bank profitability: the gap between deposit and lending rates is a record-low 1.4%, well below the 1.8% regulators recommend, and it encourages disorderly competition via underpriced loans and overcompensated deposits. With many three- and five-year deposits maturing in 2026 and able to be repriced lower, most economists expect just one or two cuts of 0.1 percentage points each; if growth looks set to undershoot the 4.5-5% official target due next month, policy could shift from wait-and-see to faster action, even though some measures suggest deflation began over two years ago.

Source: Why China’s central bank won’t save the country from deflatio

Subtitle: It’s not about the exchange rate any more

Dateline: 2月 12, 2026 05:50 上午