数据与个案支撑其规模。Bloomberg Intelligence 估算，2025 年前 11 个月中国外流的「hot money」约为 US$940 billion，按此趋势将成为自 2006 年有数据以来年度外流规模第二大。「Tom」支付超过 100,000 yuan（约 US$14,000），将 2,000,000 yuan 的香港股票转回更正式渠道，但仍持有近 US$300,000 的美国股票；「Jeff」则支付约 20,000 yuan。PwC 合伙人 Jane Cheung 指出，近月其部门高净值人士的每月咨询量较以往年份增加 4 倍。
财政压力以统计呈现：2025 年前 11 个月个人所得税收入较 2024 年上升 11.5%，达 1.47 trillion yuan；同期一般政府收入下降 0.2%，广义预算赤字接近 10 trillion yuan，年增约 18%，且 11 月支出再次收缩。执法从 2024 年针对 ultra-rich，于 2025 年扩及更广群体，并可能追溯至 2018 年（加入 CRS）。因应策略包含「wash sales」（美国禁止、在中国未受限制）、居住门槛（183 天；六年规则；30 天重置）、Stock Connect 资本利得税豁免至 2027 年底，以及因美国不在 CRS 而考虑改用美国券商。
China’s tax authorities are escalating enforcement against undisclosed overseas assets amid a widening fiscal gap. A campaign using “big data” from Beijing to Shenzhen pushes individuals to self-declare offshore income for 2022–2024 and to compute back taxes themselves, exposing how officials often know who holds assets abroad but not the amounts. A rule taking effect in March 2026 enables public exposure of overdue taxpayers via media and other channels. The article timestamp is 2026-01-13 07:00 (UTC+8; originally 07:00 GMT+8).
Capital flight and individual cases anchor the numbers. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates US$940 billion in “hot money” left China in the first 11 months of 2025, tracking toward the second-largest annual outflow since 2006. “Tom” paid over 100,000 yuan (about US$14,000), moved 2,000,000 yuan in Hong Kong shares into official channels, and still holds nearly US$300,000 in US stocks; “Jeff” paid about 20,000 yuan. PwC partner Jane Cheung reports monthly high-net-worth inquiries quadrupled in recent months.
Revenue pressure is explicit: personal income tax rose 11.5% from 2024 to 1.47 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, while broad government revenue fell 0.2% and the broad budget deficit neared 10 trillion yuan, about 18% higher year-on-year; spending contracted again in November. Enforcement broadened from ultra-rich targets in 2024 to wider groups in 2025, with potential look-back to 2018 (CRS entry). Tactics include “wash sales” (disallowed in the US, unrestricted in China), residency thresholds (183 days; six-year rule; 30-day reset), Stock Connect capital-gains exemption through end-2027, and US brokerage interest due to the US being outside CRS.
