中国在量子计算上的追赶速度显著加快。马蒂尼斯指出，2019 年谷歌宣布达成量子霸权时，中国大约落后约 3 年，但过去数年中国迅速缩小差距，如今“可能只落后我们几纳秒”。其评价基于中国科研论文的更新速度：西方团队一旦发表关键进展，中国团队通常会在数月内发表具备相近能力的成果。美国、欧洲与中国正竞争打造具实用性的量子计算机，马蒂尼斯判断其落地仍需 5–10 年，但战略价值极高，可用于解密军事通信与攻击关键基础设施。
量子计算依赖可同时为 0 和 1 的量子比特，其潜在算力远超传统计算机。2024 年 10 月，谷歌在其 Willow 芯片上运行某算法，速度比全球最佳超算快 13,000 倍，且可在类似架构上重复，为五年内出现可用于实际的量子应用铺路。与此同时，美国科技公司（如谷歌、IBM）与各国政府持续加大投入，中国也把该领域列为国家级战略重点，导致竞争格局迅速升级。马蒂尼斯表示已多次向白宫示警，目前美方在确保 AI 优势后“正转向量子领域”。
马蒂尼斯此次在特拉维夫为 Qolab 的超导量子比特设备进行安装，该公司由他于 2020 年离开谷歌后创立，与以色列量子计算中心及 Quantum Machines 合作，并将向全球研究者开放。他与克拉克、德沃雷特因对量子计算与量子传感的贡献共同获得本年度诺贝尔物理学奖，将于下周在斯德哥尔摩领奖。
China’s pace of catching up in quantum computing has accelerated sharply. Martinis said that when Google announced quantum supremacy in 2019, China was roughly three years behind, but has since narrowed the gap so rapidly that the West is now “maybe only nanoseconds ahead.” He bases this on China’s publication velocity: when Western teams release a major advance, Chinese groups often publish comparable results within months. The US, Europe and China are competing to build quantum computers with practical applications, which Martinis estimates are still 5–10 years away but carry immense strategic value, including decrypting military communications and compromising critical infrastructure.
Quantum systems rely on qubits, which can be 0 and 1 simultaneously, enabling exponentially greater processing. In October, Google reported that an algorithm run on its Willow quantum chip was 13,000 times faster than the world’s best supercomputer, a result replicable on similar platforms and viewed as paving the way toward useful quantum applications within five years. Governments and companies such as Google and IBM are increasing investment, while China has also made quantum a national priority, intensifying rivalry. Martinis said he has warned White House officials, who—after focusing first on AI—are “now moving on to quantum.”
Martinis visited Tel Aviv to install a superconducting qubit device developed by Qolab, the company he founded after leaving Google in 2020, in collaboration with the Israeli Quantum Computing Center and Quantum Machines, with global research access planned. He will accept the Nobel Prize next week in Stockholm, awarded alongside John Clarke and Michel Devoret for discoveries advancing quantum computing and sensing.