巴里近周强调Nvidia的股份稀释、库藏股与AI交易的「循环性」风险,质疑收入认列与大型科技公司对运算设备的折旧方式;同时指出对OpenAI高达1000亿美元的投资安排与以数百万颗Nvidia晶片建设资料中心的结构会放大市场风险。Nvidia股价周一上升2.1%,但仍较10月底高点低12%。在更广泛的AI泡沫疑虑下,投资人对企业是否会在数兆美元的资料中心扩张中承受过度杠杆保持警戒,尤其是昂贵GPU的汰换速度可能更快。
Nvidia向华尔街分析师发布备忘录回应巴里对股份基础报酬与回购的批评,但巴里于X平台表示坚守观点且将发布更多说明。其持续质疑AI供应链的循环交易模式与科技巨头间紧密的收益依赖,并暗示这些结构类似网路泡沫时期的互锁合作。AMD与Nvidia的AI交易同样引发市场对同业间互相推升需求的担忧,可能造成企业命运高度绑定。
在财测方面,Nvidia预告1月季度营收约650亿美元,较市场共识高约30亿美元,并称未来数季合计可达到5,000亿美元等级的增量,其实际规模甚至可能超过先前预期。执行长黄仁勋否认泡沫说法,强调需求强劲,并称公司拥有大量新GPU可供销售。然而,市场仍质疑AI基础设施支出是否具有可持续性,且企业若在未来数兆美元投资周期中面临产品快速折旧,将增大整体风险。
Burry has recently highlighted risks tied to Nvidia’s stock-based compensation dilution, buybacks, and the “circular” structure of AI deals, including Nvidia’s plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which would build data centers with millions of Nvidia chips. Nvidia shares rose 2.1% Monday but remain 12% below their late-October peak. Broader AI-bubble concerns persist as investors weigh multi-trillion-dollar data-center expansion against the rapid obsolescence of costly GPUs.
Nvidia circulated a memo to Wall Street analysts rebutting Burry’s claims, while Burry said on X that he stands by his analysis and will publish more. He continues to question revenue recognition, depreciation practices, and deeply interlinked AI-supply-chain economics reminiscent of dot-com-era partnerships. Similar concerns apply to AMD and other firms whose AI-related agreements could mutually inflate demand and bind corporate outcomes together.
Nvidia guided January-quarter revenue to roughly $65 billion, about $3 billion above consensus, and signaled that a coming revenue surge — described as on the order of half a trillion dollars across upcoming quarters — may exceed expectations. CEO Jensen Huang rejected bubble warnings and asserted strong underlying demand, citing ample new GPUs available for sale. Still, markets remain focused on whether AI-infrastructure spending can be sustained and whether rapid hardware depreciation will amplify systemic risk in the next multi-trillion-dollar investment cycle.