软件行业近期遭遇重挫：1月29日，SAP称预计其2026年云业务将“略有放缓”，股价随即暴跌15%，Salesforce、ServiceNow与Workday等也同步下挫。自10月峰值以来，标普500中美国软件公司的总市值已下跌约25%，而整个指数总体持平。

放缓的更主要驱动来自宏观环境而非AI：美国官方数据显示，企业软件投资的年增速从2021-22年的12%降至2024年的8%。与此同时，企业自研并未占上风，反而长期外包化加深：1990年代中期美国企业约30%的软件投资在内部完成，而如今这一比例约为当年的一半。

AI的经济学可能同时抬高与压低行业压力：OpenAI预计今年将烧掉170亿美元现金，暗示当前补贴性的低价难以持久并可能推高使用成本，但大型软件商可将开发成本分摊给众多客户且具备近300亿美元的年度自由现金流以投入并购与嵌入AI。关于需求弹性，证据表明软件支出相当有弹性：法国银行的一项研究与对美国数据的分析均显示，软件价格下降10%与支出上升20%相关联。

Software has been hit hard recently: on January 29 SAP said it expected a “slight deceleration” in its cloud business in 2026, and its shares plunged 15%, with Salesforce, ServiceNow and Workday also sliding. Since an October peak, the total value of software firms in America’s S&P 500 has fallen about 25% even as the index overall has been flat.

The slowdown is driven more by the macroeconomy than by AI: official US data show annual growth in business software investment easing from 12% in 2021-22 to 8% in 2024. At the same time, firms are not rushing to build everything themselves, as the long-run trend has moved further toward buying software: in the mid-1990s US companies kept about 30% of software investment in-house, and today that share is about half as large.

AI economics may raise and relieve pressure at once: OpenAI expects to burn $17bn in cash this year, suggesting today’s subsidised pricing cannot last and may push costs up, yet large software vendors can spread development costs across many customers and have nearly $30bn of annual free cashflow to fund AI embedding and acquisitions. On demand elasticity, evidence points to sizable responsiveness: a Bank of France paper and analysis of US data both find that a 10% fall in software prices is associated with a 20% rise in spending.

Source: Why software stocks are getting pummelled

Subtitle: Are investors overestimating the risk from AI?

Dateline: 2月 05, 2026 04:39 上午 | San Francisco