2026年的选举将发生在美洲人口最多的两个国家：巴西在10月选出总统、全部513名联邦众议员、81名参议员中的54名以及全部27名州长；美国在11月改选国会并选出36名州长。79岁的总统唐纳德·特朗普在第二任期中出现最低支持率，最新民调显示反对派将在2026年至少拿下立法机构的一个院，从而开始制衡行政权。
80岁的卢拉在2025年初支持率崩塌，他因前两届任期的腐败阴影在第三任期更易被指控，并且刚做过脑部手术；市场也因政府挥霍而恐慌，2024年雷亚尔是全球表现最差的主要货币。自2025年1月起，卢拉任命的央行行长保持高利率，同时政府压缩残障福利和“家庭补助金”开支、扩大电力和按揭补贴并向最贫困家庭发放免费炊事燃气，而参议院在11月通过的改革意味着1600万巴西人将少交或免交所得税；自特朗普在2025年1月就职以来美元走弱推升雷亚尔、压低食品通胀，帮助卢拉支持率回升并成为10月的热门人选。
巴西前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗在11月开始服27年刑期，罪名是2022年连任失败后试图发动政变。其子爱德华多在3月迁往得州游说特朗普圈子，导致对负责案件的法官亚历山大·德莫赖斯的制裁与对巴西进口的关税在国内极不受欢迎；在12月通话后，特朗普近来取消制裁并移除许多关税，而右翼仍然碎片化，博索纳罗在12月指定儿子弗拉维奥接班但人气下滑，其进入第二轮更像是维持党内力量而非赢下总统选举。
In 2026 the two most populous countries in the Americas hold high-stakes elections: Brazil in October chooses a president, all 513 federal deputies, 54 of 81 senators, and all 27 state governors; the United States in November renews Congress and elects 36 governors. The 79-year-old President Donald Trump has the lowest approval ratings of his second term, and polls suggest opponents will win at least one legislative chamber in 2026 to begin checking executive power.
In early 2025, 80-year-old Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval was crumbling amid corruption vulnerability and recent brain surgery, while markets fretted about spending and in 2024 the real was the world’s worst-performing major currency. Since January 2025, his appointee running the central bank has kept rates high as the government squeezed disability and Bolsa Família outlays, expanded power and mortgage subsidies, and passed reforms in November that mean 16m Brazilians pay less or no income tax; a weaker dollar since January 2025 has strengthened the real and cut food inflation, lifting Lula into frontrunner status for October.
Former president Jair Bolsonaro began serving a 27-year prison sentence in November for attempting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. His son Eduardo moved to Texas in March to lobby Trump’s circle, triggering tariffs and sanctions on Judge Alexandre de Moraes that proved unpopular; after a December call, Trump has recently lifted the sanctions and removed many tariffs, while Brazil’s right remains fragmented, with Flávio anointed in December but fading and a runoff bid framed mainly as preserving party strength rather than winning the presidency.
Source: Brazil’s general election will be all about Lula—again
Subtitle: The left-wing stalwart has emerged as the favourite; the right is in disarray
Dateline: 12月 30, 2025 06:36 上午 | Rio de Janeiro