一些历史上最出色的电子产品曾因商业失利而被遗忘，例如 Palm Pre、Oppo 的耳机与 Microsoft 的 Zune。现今 Sony 与 Nintendo 的处境令人联想这类案例：两家世界顶级主机制造商正经历一个历史性低迷年份，记忆体晶片供应短缺正在吞蚀获利空间，并威胁其娱乐帝国的硬体根基。虽然主要收入来自软体，但要进入市场仍需先把设备送到用户手中，而两家公司都面临元件成本飙升。

Nintendo 在 3 月突然推出《Pokémon Pokopia》后，4 月又发行第二部重磅电影《The Super Mario Galaxy Movie》，Sony 则比价早地预先转向 IP 资产，减少对 PlayStation 硬体的依赖。这一转向在截至 3 月的财年见效，营业利润上升 13%，但在记忆体受限的当下，两家公司仍被市场视为受挫。反观 Alphabet、Amazon.com、Meta Platforms 与 Microsoft 对 AI 的投入是前所未有，虽然最终获利轨迹仍不明确，市场通常只在短期内有一天到两天的情绪波动，随后又重新涌入资金，因为投资者认为能从 AI 中赚到兆美元的企业可能是它们。

日本游戏社群对 AI 的敌意更为明显，任何使用 AI 的工作室都可能被指称削弱创造力、威胁职位或交付平庸作品。Nintendo 长期保持相对沉默，坚持其老派创作方式并延续充满童趣的角色、场景与玩法，近年几乎没有大型失败；《Pokopia》有望成为本年度最受欢迎游戏之一，《Donkey Kong Bananza》更拿到多篇 10/10 评分。Sony 周五宣布与 TSMC 合作，发展并生产面向机器人与汽车的下一代影像感测器，并谈及「physical AI」。两家公司正在同时平衡两难：既要安抚市场对全年主机供货的忧虑，又要在缺乏醒目 AI 叙事下维持信心；我更像把这看作供应链像疫情那样的困局，艰难但可望在另一端变得更强。

Some of history’s finest electronic gadgets were commercial failures—examples like the Palm Pre, Oppo’s headphones, and Microsoft’s Zune—so Sony and Nintendo now look familiar in a similar way. The two world-leading console makers are having a historically bad year as memory chip shortages cut margins and weaken the hardware backbone of their entertainment businesses. Software may supply most of the profits, but they still need devices in consumers’ hands, while component costs keep rising.

Nintendo’s March launch of *Pokémon Pokopia* and April release of *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* were both strong hits, and Sony had already shifted earlier by leaning more on intellectual property than on PlayStation hardware. That shift appears to work: operating profit rose 13% in the fiscal year ended March. Yet both firms still look disadvantaged while chips are constrained. By contrast, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft are spending unprecedented amounts on AI despite uncertain long-term profitability, and the market often absorbs that with only a day or two of discomfort before returning; investors still expect them to capture AI’s trillion-dollar upside.

In Japan, gamer sentiment is more hostile to AI, where any studio seen using it can be criticized for hurting creativity, threatening jobs, or producing weak results. Nintendo has stayed mostly silent, preserving old-school craft and a playful childlike design across characters, environments, and gameplay, with few major misses and recent acclaim including several 10/10 reviews for *Donkey Kong Bananza* and strong reception for *Pokopia*. Sony, however, moved further on Friday: it announced a joint venture with TSMC for next-generation image sensors for robots and cars and talked about “physical AI.” Both companies now face a difficult balancing act—stabilizing demand through a year likely constrained by memory chips while coping with an underwhelming AI narrative—and the period resembles a supply-chain crisis like the pandemic: difficult now, with a chance to emerge stronger.