在北京召开的唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）与习近平（Xi Jinping）峰会将于下周举行，背景是美国主导的伊朗战争、由此引发的冲击，以及在全球秩序碎片化下，由AI革命推动的超级大国合作呼声。文章以Great Man（伟人）框架切入，关注当关系失衡、且一方似乎更重视个人关系时会发生什么。自习近平在马亚拉戈首次与特朗普会晤后近九年，两人的互动一直在升级与降温之间循环。即使特朗普在2018年第一任期发起关税攻势，他仍反复称习近平为「朋友」，但习近平的公开语气明显不如特朗普热烈。
文中指出2019年是罕见的例外，显示习近平曾在公开场合称特朗普为「朋友」。上次两人在南韩会晤时，习近平仍表示「再次见到你感到很温暖」，显示一定程度的战术礼节。然而，特朗普9月在社交媒体上转向挖苦，并在北京迎接弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）与金正恩（Kim Jong Un）阅兵的同时发文，暗示自己被「同盟对抗美国」。关系已比十年前更具敌意，并再度引出脱钩（decoupling）讨论；但特朗普对华政策同时存在务实面。
在政策结果上，焦点将放在是否可量化：中国能否助力霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）重新开放航道、贸易战停火是否持续、以及在持续的技术竞赛中中美能否就AI规则形成共识。中国也因稀土供应链杠杆仍具影响力；且习近平不必面对美国中期选举或临时过渡任期的约束，使其筹码更为坚韧。文章最后仍认为最关键结果，或许是这两位领袖能否「聊得来」。
The Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping next week comes at a moment shaped by a US-led war in Iran, shocks from that conflict, and an AI-driven push for superpower coordination amid a fragmented global order. The piece uses a Great Man frame and asks what happens when a relationship is unbalanced and one leader appears to value personal ties more than the other. Nearly nine years after Xi Jinping's first meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, their interaction has repeatedly moved between escalation and de-escalation. Even during Trump’s 2018 first-term tariff assault, he kept calling Xi a friend, while Xi’s public tone has been less warm.
The article notes 2019 as a rare exception where Xi publicly called Trump a friend. At their last meeting in South Korea, Xi still said he felt very warm seeing Trump again, suggesting tactical civility. Yet Trump’s frustration surfaced in a September social-media post made as Putin and Kim Jong Un were being received at a Beijing parade, implying a perceived coalition against the United States. Bilateral relations are now more adversarial than a decade ago, reintroducing decoupling debates. At the same time, Trump has shown pragmatic behavior toward China, and the personal channel between them may still have helped contain escalation.
On outcomes, attention is likely to focus on measurable results: whether China can help reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, whether the current trade-war truce can hold, and whether both sides can align on AI rules in the ongoing technology race. China also retains leverage through its control of rare-earth supply chains, and Xi is less constrained domestically than Trump is by US midterm timing or lame-duck pressures. Even so, the article concludes, the most consequential outcome may simply be whether the two men can get along.