菲律宾的“禁毒战争”在小费迪南德·“邦邦”·马科斯（Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos）总统任内经历了彻底的形象重塑，但在实质上依然存在。前总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特（Rodrigo Duterte）将于2026年11月30日在国际刑事法院（ICC）因涉嫌造成高达30,000人死亡的禁毒战争接受反人类罪审判。虽然马科斯政府宣称其禁毒行动是“无血的”，但数据监测项目 Dahas 显示，马科斯执政前三年缉获的非法毒品数量几乎与杜特尔特六年任期相当；尽管毒品相关杀戮从马科斯执政第一年的342起降至第四年的269起，但自2023年以来，由国家执法人员实施的杀戮比例始终维持在三分之一左右（每年约100起），显示出警方的杀戮文化并未消除。
制度与法律层面的停滞进一步巩固了这一暴力的惯性。尽管警方在宿务等地区继续开展行动，但像“双桶计划”（Project Double Barrel）和“敲门劝导”（Oplan Tokhang）等奠定禁毒战争基础的官方行政循环文件依然具有法律效力。自2016年禁毒战争爆发以来，数万起死亡案件中仅有5起导致法院有罪判决，且仅有9名警官被定罪。只要国家制度缺乏对每起执法致死案件的独立调查与记录机制，警方的暴力执法习惯就无法从法律和制度上被根本摒除。
政治权力的剧烈动荡深刻影响着禁毒政策的走向。马科斯与杜特尔特家族的政治盟友关系已彻底破裂：副总统莎拉·杜特尔特（Sara Duterte）因涉嫌指派刺客威胁马科斯以及腐败问题于2026年7月在参议院接受审判，而马科斯自身的公众满意度因防洪工程丑闻已暴跌至32%。随着菲律宾早在2019年3月退出了 ICC，国际法院无法追究退出之后的致死案件。只要严厉的禁毒政策在选民中依然拥有强烈的民意基础，现任政府缺乏足够的政治意愿去彻底关闭这一执法机器。
The Philippine "war on drugs" has undergone a structural rebranding under President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., while extrajudicial violence persists. Former President Rodrigo Duterte faces trial at the International Criminal Court (ICC) on November 30, 2026, for crimes against humanity related to an estimated 30,000 extrajudicial killings during his tenure. Although the Marcos administration characterizes its current drug enforcement as "bloodless," data from the monitoring initiative Dahas shows drug-related fatalities totaled 269 in the year ending June 30, 2026 down from 342 in Marcos's first year. However, state agents remain directly responsible for approximately one-third of these annual deaths (around 100 per year), demonstrating that state-sanctioned violence remains embedded in police operations.
Institutional mechanisms supporting the drug war remain operational across law enforcement. Foundational executive guidelines, such as "Project Double Barrel" and "Oplan Tokhang," remain active legal directives, providing broad operational covers for lethal police operations. Judicial accountability remains negligible; since 2016, out of thousands of fatalities, only five cases have resulted in convictions involving just nine police officers. Without mandatory independent investigations and mandatory forensic documentation for every police-involved death, extrajudicial practices remain structurally integrated into national policing.
Political volatility and broad public support further complicate policy reform. The governing coalition between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties has devolved into acute conflict: Vice President Sara Duterte faced Senate trial in July 2026 following public threats against Marcos, while Marcos's public approval rating fell to 32% amid infrastructure corruption scandals. Because the Philippines withdrew from the ICC in March 2019, post-withdrawal fatalities fall outside Hague jurisdiction. With aggressive anti-drug policies retaining significant popularity among voters, the executive branch lacks the political incentive to formally dismantle the anti-drug framework.
Source: It continues, rebranded, under Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos
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Dateline: Jul 23rd 2026