在生成式人工智能热潮中，英伟达一度因其在AI芯片市场的主导地位成为全球市值最高的公司，但如今却遭遇来自其大客户谷歌的强劲挑战。谷歌推出完全基于自研TPU训练的Gemini 3模型，并与Anthropic签下最多使用100万颗TPU、价值达数百亿美元的交易，同时据报道还在与计划到2027年在数据中心采用TPU的Meta洽谈合作，使英伟达在11月25日单日蒸发逾1000亿美元市值，约为其总市值的3%。
英伟达客户转向更便宜方案的动力巨大：伯恩斯坦估计，其GPU占典型AI服务器机架成本的三分之二以上，而谷歌TPU的单价仅为同等英伟达芯片的一半到十分之一。彭博情报预计谷歌明年的资本开支将达到950亿美元，近四分之三用于训练和运行AI模型，在这种成本优势推动下，母公司Alphabet股价过去三个月飙升约50%，成为全球第三大市值公司。
其他科技巨头如亚马逊、Meta和微软也在开发自研处理器，OpenAI则与芯片设计公司博通合作造芯，但进展都落后于十多年前就开始设计芯片、如今已迭代到第七代TPU的谷歌；投行杰富瑞预计谷歌明年将生产约300万颗TPU，数量接近英伟达的一半。尽管如此，英伟达仍凭借广泛应用、让开发者习以为常的CUDA软件平台和高度灵活的GPU架构保持优势，因此即使谷歌削弱了其“无懈可击”的光环，英伟达的实力仍不容低估。
In the generative AI boom, Nvidia became the world’s most valuable company thanks to its dominance in AI chips, but now faces a powerful challenge from major customer Google. Google’s Gemini 3, trained entirely on in-house TPUs, plus Anthropic’s plan to use up to 1 million TPUs in a deal worth tens of billions of dollars and reported talks with Meta to adopt TPUs by 2027, helped wipe more than $100bn, or about 3% of Nvidia’s value, on November 25th.
Customers have a strong reason to seek cheaper options: Bernstein estimates Nvidia GPUs make up over two-thirds of a typical AI server rack’s cost, while Google’s TPUs are priced between one-half and one-tenth of comparable Nvidia chips. Bloomberg Intelligence expects Google’s capital expenditures to reach $95bn next year, with nearly three-quarters devoted to AI compute, and this cost advantage has helped Alphabet’s shares jump by roughly 50% in three months, making it the third-most valuable company globally.
Other tech giants such as Amazon, Meta and Microsoft are also building custom processors, and OpenAI is working with Broadcom on its own silicon, but all lag Google, which began designing chips over a decade ago and is now on its seventh TPU generation; Jefferies estimates 3 million TPUs will be produced next year, nearly half Nvidia’s projected unit output. Even so, Nvidia retains a moat through its CUDA software ecosystem and highly flexible GPUs, meaning that although Google has chipped away at its aura of invincibility, Nvidia’s competitive strength remains formidable.