数十年来,60-40 的股债投资组合一直是市场的通用标准,投资人通常以股票获取成长,并利用债券来抵销风险。然而,自2021年通膨急升以来,债券作为分散风险工具的效用正在逐渐降低。
随著股债相关性转正,债券不仅未能抵销股市下跌的风险,甚至加剧了投资组合的损失。市场对于债券价格下跌的原因众说纷纭,包含通膨冲击、财政纪律不彰以及联准会的信用问题等。
这使得重新思考投资组合中的风险避险成分变得至关重要。专家建议,未来的资产配置需要更积极地管理债券部位,并区分资产间在危机时期与非危机时期的相关性。
For decades, the 60-40 stock and bond portfolio model has been the universal standard, allowing investors to capture growth through equities while offsetting risk with bonds. However, since the resurgence of inflation in 2021, the effectiveness of bonds as a diversifier has diminished significantly.
As the correlation between stocks and bonds has turned positive, bonds are no longer offsetting equity losses but instead contributing to them. The reasons behind falling bond prices are widely debated, ranging from inflation shocks and fiscal indiscipline to questions surrounding the Federal Reserve's credibility.
This shift makes it crucial to rethink the risk-hedging components of investment portfolios. Experts suggest that the bond portion needs more active management, and investors should start differentiating between crisis and non-crisis correlations among asset classes.