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2026年的葡萄酒世界走向仍不明朗:美国关税诉讼的结果可能继续推高或稳定价格,但气候风险更确定。英国气象局预测2026年将位列有记录以来最热的前四名之一,意味着洪水、风暴、热浪、干旱与野火等极端事件在传统产区更频繁,促使酒农把葡萄藤向更冷凉地区(如瑞典)扩展。无酒精葡萄酒将更主流,法国已有5家大型公司加码,其中Castel宣布在卢瓦尔河谷投资1,000万欧元建设无酒精生产设施。

消费结构也在变化:最新美国研究显示Z世代(1997–2012)过去一年饮用量上升,而千禧一代(1981–1996)已超过婴儿潮一代,成为最大的饮酒群体;白葡萄酒继续跑赢红葡萄酒,餐厅选择更丰富,健康争议与“是否需要癌症警示标签”的讨论仍在延烧。

起泡酒与“体验+性价比”将成为增长抓手。法国普罗塞克去年销量增长12%,Wine Market Council在12月初发布的近5,000名美国成年人的调查也显示千禧一代与Z世代明显比婴儿潮一代更常喝起泡酒;埃特纳火山的spumante bianco产量在2019到2024年间翻倍以上。酒旅方面,《Global Wine Tourism Report 2025》对47国1,310家酒庄调查发现73%计划扩展活动,且活动收入平均已占25%;同时美国瓶型法规新增13种许可规格,让100毫升小瓶等新包装更普及。

The 2026 wine outlook is cloudy: US tariff rulings could shift prices, while climate risk is clearer. The UK Met Office expects 2026 to rank among the four warmest years on record, raising odds of floods, storms, heat waves, drought and wildfires and pushing vines into cooler places. Nonalcoholic wine keeps going mainstream; five large French firms are investing, including Castel’s €10 million no-alcohol facility in the Loire. US data also shows Gen Z (1997–2012) increased consumption and millennials (1981–1996) now outdrink boomers.

Sparkling wine is the bright spot: Champagne is slumping, but prosecco sales in France rose 12% last year, and a Wine Market Council survey of nearly 5,000 US adults found millennials and Gen Z drink bubbly far more than boomers. Producers are filling the gap with crémant, English sparkling, Lambrusco and sekt, plus new regions and grapes. Mt. Etna spumante bianco output more than doubled from 2019 to 2024, and Dom Pérignon’s former cellar master launched a Corsican sparkler in 2025.

Experiences and value are the other levers. The 2025 Global Wine Tourism Report found 73% of 1,310 wineries across 47 countries plan to expand activities, which already average 25% of winery revenue. AI is moving from vineyard sensors and robots into trip planning, with Napa hotel partnerships rolling out in early 2026. Packaging is also shifting: after decades of limited US bottle formats, 13 additional sizes are now legal, enabling offerings like 100-milliliter minis and more affordable multi-packs.

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2026-01-02 (Friday) · bab8658f1992a15a7fa0b6fbb7585b36177f20a0