特朗普以威胁加征关税、强压盟友等方式削弱基于规则的国际秩序，促使中等强国对冲风险、分散依赖，从而为中国扩大影响力打开空间。对丹麦与格陵兰的施压、以及对盟友的强硬经济手段，使欧洲首次考虑动用反经济胁迫工具对付其主要安全盟友。在达沃斯，加拿大总理卡尼宣布“规则型秩序已死”，主张中等强国联合打造“第三条道路”。这一转向发生在疫情后格局重塑之际：七国集团2023年曾誓言反对将经济依赖武器化，如今却被盟友内部的不确定性动摇。
对冲策略正在成形。加拿大本月与中国签署贸易安排，欢迎中国电动车入境，背离美国的高关税立场；卡尼称之为“可变几何”，即在贸易、乌克兰、北极、北约、关键矿产与人工智能等议题上灵活结盟。印度长期采取“对冲”外交，但在被美国加税后靠拢北京的空间有限；日本与韩国在美国可靠性受疑的情况下，国内关于核能力的讨论升温。历史对比凸显风险：1917年美国以25百万美元黄金购得丹属西印度群岛（约合今日6亿美元），1946年又以1亿美元黄金（约14亿美元）试图购岛；如今围绕格陵兰的主权与基地谈判再度引发盟友疑虑。
结果是“唐罗悖论”：特朗普试图通过单边威慑限制中国，却反而抬升习近平的相对吸引力。中国既受益于既有规则、又在稀土等领域展现反制能力；随着全球制造对出口依赖上升，西方内部摩擦降低了对华协调设障的意愿。近期迹象包括：中加协议、英国批准新中使馆、德国领导人即将访华。为对冲美国不确定性，更多国家接受对中国“有限依赖”。
Trump’s tariff threats and coercive tactics are hollowing out the rules-based order, pushing middle powers to hedge and diversify—and opening space for China. Pressure on Denmark over Greenland and strong-arming allies have led Europe to contemplate anti-coercion tools against its main security partner. At Davos, Canada’s Mark Carney declared the rules-based order “dead,” urging middle powers to form a “third path.” This marks a sharp turn from 2023, when G7 leaders vowed to prevent the weaponization of economic dependencies—now undermined by allied uncertainty.
Hedging strategies are taking shape. Canada signed a trade arrangement with China this month welcoming Chinese EVs, diverging from US tariffs; Carney calls it “variable geometry,” building flexible coalitions across trade, Ukraine, the Arctic, NATO, critical minerals and AI. India’s long-standing hedging has limits after US tariff pressure; in Japan and South Korea, doubts about US reliability have fueled domestic nuclear debates. History underscores the stakes: the US last forced land sales in 1917 for $25 million in gold (about $600 million today), sought Greenland in 1946 for $100 million in gold (about $1.4 billion), and now revisits sovereignty and basing—rattling allies.
The result is a “Donroe Paradox”: Trump’s bid to constrain China through unilateral pressure is boosting Xi’s relative appeal. China benefits from existing rules and has shown leverage in rare earths; as global manufacturing growth leans on exports, Western discord reduces appetite for coordinated barriers. Recent signals include Canada’s deal, the UK approving a new Chinese embassy, and a forthcoming German visit. To hedge against US unpredictability, more countries are accepting limited dependence on China.