全球主要经济体的长债收益率正升至2007-2008年金融危机以来的最高水平。在美国、法国、日本和英国，30年期国债收益率居高不下，标志着低利率时代彻底终结。引发收益率上升的核心因素包括居高不下的通胀压力、美日央行买入日元干预汇市、地缘政治冲突带来的风险溢价，以及高企的财政赤字。对于高负债政府而言，高利率构成了巨大的财政负担；以美国为例，国债收益率每上升1个百分点，十年内每年需额外付出相当于国内生产总值（GDP）1.3%的利息支出。

面对日益严峻的债务压力，西方政府普遍寄希望于人工智能（AI）驱动的经济增长来弥补财政赤字。然而，高市场利率往往先于生产率增长到来。高盛预计今年全球仅在数据中心上的投资就高达1万亿美元，这极大地挤占了资本供给并推高了债券收益率。与此同时，AI对生产率的提升尚未在统计数据中得到明确体现，而欧洲还可能面临因美国AI增长推高全球利率、自身因能源成本和劳动力市场僵化而承担更高融资成本的双重困境。

更为严峻的是，即使AI带来了显著的生产率飞跃，其对财政的改善作用也将大幅削弱。AI技术引发的劳动力市场变革将增加失业与福利支出，财富向资本集中也会降低税收收入；此外，地缘对抗引发的军备竞赛和延长寿命带来的养老金压力也将推高公共支出。布鲁金斯学会的研究表明，这些额外支出叠加高利率，将使AI经济增长对削减美国财政赤字的积极效应缩减一半以上，单纯依赖AI赌博财政未来的做法蕴含着巨大的市场风险。

Thirty-year sovereign bond yields in America, France, Japan, and Britain have escalated near their highest levels since the global financial crisis of 2007–09, signalling a permanent departure from the ultra-low interest rates of the 2010s. Persistent inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical shocks have driven up bond yields across rich nations. This trend is particularly damaging for heavily indebted states like America, where every single percentage-point increase in bond yields consumes an additional 1.3% of annual GDP in interest payments within a decade.

Rather than pursuing fiscal austerity, governments are effectively gambling that artificial intelligence will generate enough productivity growth to fund their expanding budgets. However, market borrowing costs have surged well ahead of any measurable productivity gains. Goldman Sachs estimates that global data-centre investment alone will reach $1 trillion this year, swallowing scarce capital and directly driving bond yields higher. This poses a major threat to regions like Europe, which risk inheriting higher global interest rates without capturing the productivity dividends enjoyed by America.

Even if AI eventually generates substantial economic growth, its net fiscal benefit will be severely constrained by structural costs. Widespread automation will displace workers and inflate social welfare spending, while capital-intensive gains yield lower tax revenues than labor income. Additionally, rising defense expenditures and pension obligations from extended lifespans will expand public budgets. According to the Brookings Institution, these factors combined with elevated interest rates will cut the deficit-reducing potential of AI-driven growth by more than half, rendering fiscal complacency highly dangerous.

Source: Governments are making a dangerous bet on the AI boom

Subtitle: To see why, look to the bond markets

Dateline: 8月 06, 2026 04:41 上午