中国经济正面临严峻的结构性失衡。2026年第二季度整体经济增长率降至4.3%，低于年初设定的4.5%至5%的目标下限。出口依然强劲，六月同比增长27%，但国内消费疲软，零售销售仅增长1%，固定投资更在上半年下降了5.7%，消费经济与生产经济之间的巨大反差令人担忧。

北京过去曾尝试透过共同富裕运动、供给侧结构性改革及去杠杆化等政策来应对经济失衡，但在促进消费方面的实质进展仍然有限。医疗和养老等社会安全网改革迟迟未能落实，导致家庭预防性储蓄居高不下，抑制了消费需求的释放。习近平主导的「新质生产力」战略强调人工智能、绿色科技和电动车等先进制造业，本质上仍延续了以生产为核心的经济模式。

中国目前占全球制造业增加值的约30%，联合国数据显示这一比例到2030年可能升至45%，堪比二战后美国的全球制造业巅峰份额。然而与历史上的工业强国不同，中国缺乏国内消费者的坚实支撑。在国内需求持续疲弱的情况下，过剩产能将冲击海外市场，引发美国、欧洲乃至全球南方国家的保护主义反制，这不仅考验中国经济的韧性，也对全球经济格局构成重大挑战。

China's economy faces deepening structural imbalances as of mid-2026. GDP growth fell to 4.3% in the second quarter, missing the government's already modest target. While exports surged 27% year-on-year in June, domestic demand remained severely depressed, with retail sales growing only 1% and fixed investment declining 5.7% in the first half of the year, exposing a stark dichotomy between a resilient producer economy and a moribund consumer economy.

Beijing has historically attempted to address these imbalances through initiatives such as the Common Prosperity Campaign, supply-side structural reforms, and deleveraging efforts, yet meaningful progress on boosting consumption remains elusive. Critical social safety-net reforms in healthcare and pensions have not materialized, keeping precautionary household savings elevated. President Xi Jinping's strategy centered on 'new quality productive forces'—including AI, green technology, and electric vehicles—continues to reinforce the producer-driven model rather than pivot toward domestic consumption.

China now accounts for roughly 30% of global manufacturing value added, a share that could reach 45% by 2030 according to UN data, rivaling post-WWII America's peak—but without the domestic consumer base that earlier industrial powers enjoyed. With weak internal demand fueling excess supply destined for overseas markets, China faces growing protectionist backlash from the US, Europe, and the global south. Stephen Roach warns that these ever-mounting imbalances, reminiscent of those preceding the 2008 financial crisis, pose a serious threat to both China and the global economy, and cannot be sustained much longer.