中國經濟正面臨嚴峻的結構性失衡。2026年第二季度整體經濟增長率降至4.3%，低於年初設定的4.5%至5%的目標下限。出口依然強勁，六月同比增長27%，但國內消費疲軟，零售銷售僅增長1%，固定投資更在上半年下降了5.7%，消費經濟與生產經濟之間的巨大反差令人擔憂。

北京過去曾嘗試透過共同富裕運動、供給側結構性改革及去槓桿化等政策來應對經濟失衡，但在促進消費方面的實質進展仍然有限。醫療和養老等社會安全網改革遲遲未能落實，導致家庭預防性儲蓄居高不下，抑制了消費需求的釋放。習近平主導的「新質生產力」戰略強調人工智能、綠色科技和電動車等先進製造業，本質上仍延續了以生產為核心的經濟模式。

中國目前佔全球製造業增加值的約30%，聯合國數據顯示這一比例到2030年可能升至45%，堪比二戰後美國的全球製造業巔峰份額。然而與歷史上的工業強國不同，中國缺乏國內消費者的堅實支撐。在國內需求持續疲弱的情況下，過剩產能將衝擊海外市場，引發美國、歐洲乃至全球南方國家的保護主義反制，這不僅考驗中國經濟的韌性，也對全球經濟格局構成重大挑戰。

China's economy faces deepening structural imbalances as of mid-2026. GDP growth fell to 4.3% in the second quarter, missing the government's already modest target. While exports surged 27% year-on-year in June, domestic demand remained severely depressed, with retail sales growing only 1% and fixed investment declining 5.7% in the first half of the year, exposing a stark dichotomy between a resilient producer economy and a moribund consumer economy.

Beijing has historically attempted to address these imbalances through initiatives such as the Common Prosperity Campaign, supply-side structural reforms, and deleveraging efforts, yet meaningful progress on boosting consumption remains elusive. Critical social safety-net reforms in healthcare and pensions have not materialized, keeping precautionary household savings elevated. President Xi Jinping's strategy centered on 'new quality productive forces'—including AI, green technology, and electric vehicles—continues to reinforce the producer-driven model rather than pivot toward domestic consumption.

China now accounts for roughly 30% of global manufacturing value added, a share that could reach 45% by 2030 according to UN data, rivaling post-WWII America's peak—but without the domestic consumer base that earlier industrial powers enjoyed. With weak internal demand fueling excess supply destined for overseas markets, China faces growing protectionist backlash from the US, Europe, and the global south. Stephen Roach warns that these ever-mounting imbalances, reminiscent of those preceding the 2008 financial crisis, pose a serious threat to both China and the global economy, and cannot be sustained much longer.