唐纳德·特朗普推行的严厉移民收紧政策引发了美国人口结构的重大逆转。在2022至2024年间，美国年均净移民人数曾超过200万，但布鲁金斯学会估计2025年该数字已降至零甚至负值；政府声称已驱逐100万人并促使220万人自愿离境，2026年初境内驱逐率约为特朗普重返白宫前的五倍。美国国会预算办公室预计，2026年18至64岁适龄劳动力人口将比2025年初的预测减少230万，美联储预计今年人口增速将低于0.2%（创1951年以来新低）。自今年1月以来劳动力大军已缩减逾100万，月均新增非农就业岗位从过去三年的23万以上骤降至3万，维持失业率稳定所需的月度平衡新增就业门槛已降至近乎零水平。
执法行动对实体经济造成了立竿见影的冲击。2025年1月至2026年6月期间，移民及海关执法局（ICE）在境内实施了约50万次拘捕，导致五分之二的无证移民因恐惧而旷工。《经济学人》测算显示，低学历外籍劳动群体就业人数锐减约90万。拥有1100万从业人员且外籍劳动力占比达30%的建筑行业遭受重创，石膏板安装及框架搭建等关键工种的用工缺口高达70%至75%。尽管非管理层建筑工人的年薪增速升至5.2%（较2025年1月加快1.4个百分点），但本土劳动力仍未填补缺口；由于工种高度协同互补，外籍工人流失反而导致本土技术工人和主管的岗位同步减少。
高技能移民渠道的收紧对美国长期创新构成了更为深远的威胁。去年留学生签证骤降三分之一，政府更于8月24日提议对新申请H-1B签证征收高达103,265美元的重税。目前留美外籍人才占美国理工科（STEM）博士总数的35%；彼得森国际经济研究所估算，长期收紧学生签证将使顶尖技术人才规模萎缩11.5%，并在十年内令美国年均实际GDP损失近5000亿美元（相当于去年GDP的1.6%）。在中国推出K字签证以及加拿大和欧盟争相招揽高层次人才之际，美国正面临当下劳动力短缺与未来创新引擎熄火的双重困境。
Donald Trump’s draconian immigration crackdown has triggered a historic demographic reversal across the United States. Following a post-pandemic surge in 2022-24 when net immigration exceeded 2m annually, net migration fell to roughly zero or turned negative in 2025, according to the Brookings Institution. The administration claims 1m deportations alongside 2.2m voluntary departures, with interior deportations running at five times pre-Trump levels by early 2026. The Congressional Budget Office estimates America will have 2.3m fewer 18-to-64-year-olds in 2026 than previously projected, while Federal Reserve economists forecast population growth below 0.2% this year—the lowest since 1951. With the workforce shrinking by over 1m since January, monthly payroll gains collapsed from 230,000 to 30,000, driving the "break-even" employment growth rate needed to keep unemployment stable down to zero.
Interior enforcement has dealt an immediate blow to labour supply. Between January 2025 and June 2026, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted approximately 500,000 interior arrests leading to detention, causing two in five undocumented workers to avoid work out of fear. An analysis by The Economist indicates employment among likely undocumented workers has dropped by roughly 900,000 under the administration. The construction sector, which employs 11m workers with a 30% foreign-born share, has been hit hardest, suffering labour losses of 70-75% in specialized trades like framing and drywalling. Although annual wage growth for non-supervisory construction workers accelerated to 5.2%—1.4 percentage points above January 2025 levels—native-born workers have not filled the void; instead, native employment contracted concurrently due to task complementarity.
Simultaneously, curbs on high-skilled immigration threaten America’s long-term technological dynamism. Student visas plunged by a third last year, capped by an August 24th proposal to levy an exorbitant $103,265 fee on new H-1B visas. Foreign-born individuals account for 35% of American STEM doctorate holders; the Peterson Institute estimates that a sustained squeeze on student visas could shrink this top-tier technical talent pool by 11.5% and erase nearly $500bn from annual real GDP (1.6% of output) within a decade. As rivals like China introduce K visas and Canada and the European Union expand avenues for skilled labour, American policies risk inflicting severe immediate worker shortages while permanently eroding its future innovation frontier.
Source: The economic costs of Donald Trump’s immigration crackdow
Subtitle: A smaller workforce and slower growth
Dateline: Aug 27th 2026