尽管高借贷成本引发财政担忧，但市场常忽视债券投资人的回报已开始回稳并在近期多呈现正报酬。相较于2020年代初期低收益率无法抵御熊市的窘境，当前较高的起始收益率提供了强大的缓冲保护。以美国国债为例，即便十年期殖利率过去一年走升，彭博美债总回报指数仍录得正收益，甚至需要殖利率进一步大幅飙升才会侵蚀正回报；英国公债在经历2022年迷你预算危机后，即便收益率攀升，整体指数仍缴出约12%的总报酬。
长期调整过程虽尚未完全结束，且推升收益率的结构性力量短期内难以消退，但债券市场已重返正常常轨。在经历多年高度依赖资本利得的时期后，如今更为正常的收益率水准重新发挥了提供复利利息收入的功能，有助于吸收市场波动并回报耐心持有的投资人。尽管未来仍面临压力且实质回报难见暴利，但债券已回归其传统的固定收益角色，投资人应理性看待后续不可避免的负面新闻冲击。
The recent global bond sell-off should be understood primarily as an ongoing normalization following the historical anomaly of financial repression in the 2010s, rather than an acute debt crisis. According to Deutsche Bank research, elevated bond yields are driven by heavy sovereign issuance, central banks unwinding quantitative easing, and persistent, volatile inflation. Moreover, resilient global economic growth, robust nominal US GDP supported by the AI boom, and competing corporate debt supply have collectively established a higher equilibrium level for bond yields.
Although rising borrowing costs pose legitimate fiscal challenges, bond investor returns have quietly begun to stabilize and generate positive outcomes. In stark contrast to the early 2020s, higher starting yields now offer essential protection against rising rate shocks. Over the past year, the US Treasury index maintained positive total returns despite rising yields, requiring substantial further yield spikes before turning negative. Similarly, UK gilts delivered roughly 12 percent in total returns since the 2022 mini-Budget crisis highs, underscoring the defensive power of higher coupon income.
While this structural adjustment is not yet complete and upward pressure on yields persists, the market has re-entered a fundamentally normal regime. After years of relying predominantly on capital gains, bond yields have returned to levels that generate stable compound income, effectively cushioning volatility and rewarding patient investors. Even if spectacular real returns remain elusive, bonds have fundamentally regained their traditional fixed-income identity, providing a crucial perspective for navigating future negative headlines.