老挝人民军坚称位于首都万象以北的一座新建军用机场仅用于空军飞行员训练，中国自2025年底以来便在该地铺设长跑道。然而，两国于9月29日正式宣布在越战时期曾为美中情局机场的班肯设立“联合支援中心”，引发了西方及其亚洲盟友的警惕，分析人士担忧老挝可能向中国开放东南亚大陆的首个空军基地。迄今为止，中国仅在吉布提拥有一处海外军事后勤保障基地，并在柬埔寨联合运营一处海军基地；尽管该老挝新设施距中国南部边境仅约300公里，其具体驻军与飞机规模尚不明确，但其战略意图已引发广泛猜测。
作为东南亚最贫穷的国家之一，老挝深陷债务泥潭，对北方邻国的欠款高达50亿美元，约占其国内生产总值（GDP）的30%。老挝曾将巨额资金押注于水坝水电站以及连接中国昆明的中老高铁项目；2022年老挝货币基普因巨额债务重压崩溃后，中国对其债务进行了重组并挽救了其主权违约危机，老挝至今尚未恢复正常偿付。此外，中国航空工业集团（AVIC）曾于2024年起将川圹机场跑道扩建至3公里——足以起降军用战机，并在2025年6月竣工交接。老挝政府在极度不透明的政治运作中对外坚称宪法严禁外国驻军，但外界对其债务主权受控的疑虑依然未消。
面对潜在的中国军事扩张，美国因历史与现实矛盾在老挝缺乏施策杠杆。越战时期美军轰炸老挝遗留了数千万枚未爆弹药，而唐纳德·特朗普去年对老挝输美商品加征高达48%的惩罚性关税，并试图遣返数百名出生在境外的苗族难民后裔，甚至下令几乎拒签所有老挝签证申请，导致双边关系深度恶化。在老挝真正能够抗衡中国影响力的唯有越南；两国执政党同根同源且高层往来密切，但面对东面中越海洋争端与西面地缘挤压，河内正极为警惕地注视着北京在老挝境内的军事与基础设施渗透。
Lao military authorities maintain that a newly constructed airfield north of Vientiane is strictly a pilot training facility, where Chinese contractors have been extending a runway since late 2025. However, the September 29th announcement establishing a Sino-Lao "joint support centre" at Ban Keun—a former CIA airfield during the Vietnam War—has alarmed Western intelligence, raising concerns that Laos may host China's first air base in mainland Southeast Asia. Currently, China operates only one overseas logistics base in Djibouti and shares a naval facility in Cambodia. While the deployment of troops and aircraft at Ban Keun remains unconfirmed, its location just 300km from China's border carries strategic weight.
Vientiane's diplomatic leverage is constrained by acute financial dependence. As one of Southeast Asia's poorest nations, Laos owes China $5bn, representing roughly 30% of its GDP, incurred largely through infrastructure investments including hydropower dams and a high-speed railway to Kunming. Following the kip's collapse under sovereign debt pressure in 2022, Beijing rescued Laos via debt rescheduling, with debt repayments yet to resume. Separately, Chinese aerospace firm AVIC completed a 3km runway expansion capable of handling military jets at Xieng Khouang in June 2025. While Lao officials cite constitutional prohibitions against foreign military bases, governmental opacity fuels regional skepticism regarding sovereignty concessions.
American influence to counter Chinese military expansion remains undermined by legacy grievances and punitive diplomacy. Resentment lingers over tens of millions of unexploded American cluster munitions from the Vietnam War era. Tensions escalated under Donald Trump, who imposed a 48% tariff on Lao imports, initiated deportations of ethnic Hmong refugees, and restricted American visa issuance. The only structural counterweight to Beijing's influence in Vientiane is Vietnam, whose ruling party shares deep historical and ideological ties with Lao elites. However, facing maritime disputes in the East, Hanoi views China's accelerating infrastructure and military footprint along its western border with acute apprehension.
Source: Is China building an air base in Laos?
Subtitle: It’s just a pilot school, the two governments say
Dateline: Oct 8th 2026\n