乌克兰与中东的近期冲突显示，无人机正在彻底改变现代战争的样貌，并显著转变战斗的经济效益。在乌克兰，双方部署了数百万架无人系统以进行前线侦察与战略打击；在波斯湾，伊朗则利用自杀式无人机攻击油轮与美军基地。这种每架仅需数万美元的低成本自主系统，能够对大型舰艇与重要基地造成不对称的损害，促使美国及其盟友积极推动「复制者倡议」与「无人机主导」计划，以应对未来可能的冲突。然而，历史经验警告我们，如同一次与二次世界大战前夕战略家对战场教训的忽视或过度解读，今日若因此认为无人机已使其他传统武器变得无关紧要，将是一个致命的错误。
尽管部分分析人士主张五角大厦应全面转向无人机革命，并认为坦克等传统装备已经过时，但深入检视近期战争却能发现，单靠廉价的无人系统并不足以赢得胜利。俄罗斯在对乌克兰的攻击中，是将无人机作为饱和防空系统的诱饵，并搭配破坏力更强的弹道飞弹才造成最大伤害；美国与以色列在对抗伊朗时，同样是结合无人机、巡弋飞弹与精准情报来执行长程打击。此外，B-2轰炸机与F-35战机等高阶武力投射平台在摧毁伊朗核设施上展现了关键价值，而萨德、爱国者及标准三型、六型飞弹等先进防空系统更拦截了约九成的伊朗飞弹，证明高阶防御与打击能力依然不可或缺。
作为全球超级强权，美国若要履行全球承诺并击败坚定的大国对手，就必须建立一个兼顾廉价自主系统与高阶精准武器的平衡军火库。以西太平洋潜在的台海冲突为例，美军虽计划在「地狱景象」概念下部署大量海空无人机来迟滞中国的进攻，但仍必须依赖充足的长程精准打击火力来迅速摧毁数百英里外的高价值目标，并需要庞大的防空与飞弹防御系统来保护基地与舰队。目前五角大厦已在推进无人机计划的同时，签署扩大生产巡弋飞弹与拦截飞弹的框架协议，而国会的持续资金支持将是美国大规模量产这两类武器、在未来危险局势中取胜的关键。
Recent conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrate that drones are transforming modern warfare and significantly shifting the economics of combat. In Ukraine, both sides have deployed millions of uncrewed systems for frontline surveillance and strategic strikes, while in the Persian Gulf, Iran has used suicide drones to target tankers and US bases. These low-cost autonomous systems, costing as little as tens of thousands of dollars each, can inflict asymmetric damage on large ships and vital bases, prompting the US and its allies to actively pursue initiatives like the Replicator Initiative and drone dominance programs for future clashes. However, history warns that, much like strategists who ignored or overlearned battlefield lessons before World War I and World War II, concluding today that drones have rendered other conventional weapons irrelevant would be a fatal mistake.
Although some analysts argue that the Pentagon should go all-in on the drone revolution and claim traditional platforms like tanks are now obsolete, a closer appraisal of recent wars reveals that cheap uncrewed systems alone are insufficient for victory. In attacks against Ukraine, Russia inflicted the greatest damage by pairing drones that saturate air defenses with higher-end ballistic missiles that pack a greater punch; similarly, the US and Israel combined drones with cruise missiles and exquisite intelligence for long-range strikes against Iran. Furthermore, top-dollar power-projection platforms like B-2 bombers and F-35 aircraft proved vital in devastating Iran's nuclear program, while advanced defense systems such as THAAD, Patriot, SM-3, and SM-6 missiles intercepted roughly 90% of Iranian missiles, proving that sophisticated offensive and defensive capabilities remain indispensable.
As a global superpower, the United States must build a balanced arsenal combining cheap autonomous systems and higher-end precision weapons to meet its global commitments and defeat determined great-power adversaries. In a potential Western Pacific conflict over Taiwan, while the US military plans to deploy swarms of aerial and naval drones under its Hellscape concept to stymie a Chinese assault, it still relies on deep stocks of long-range strike capabilities to promptly hit high-value targets from hundreds of miles away, alongside copious air and missile defense systems to protect its bases and ships. The Pentagon has already paired its drone programs with framework agreements to dramatically expand the production of cruise missiles and interceptors, and consistent congressional funding for both facets of rearmament will be essential to produce them at scale and prevail in the dangerous years ahead.