7月6日，中国宣布从一艘核导弹潜艇上向太平洋进行了一次罕见的洲际弹道导弹试射，这令该地区感到紧张。尽管五角大楼估计中国的核潜艇已经巡逻了十年，但中国政府此前从未予以证实。在历史上，中国仅在1980年和2024年两次向太平洋试射过远程弹道导弹，且两次都是从陆地发射的。最近的这次海基测试可能使用了射程约7200公里的巨浪-2型导弹或射程约10000公里的巨浪-3型导弹，这表明中国正进一步接近拥有由陆基、海基和空基发射能力组成的可靠“三位一体”核打击力量。专家预测，中国明年将通过试射空射弹道导弹来展示这一三位一体力量的最终建成。
这次发射与五角大楼的警告相吻合，即中国正在扩大其核武库，预计到2030年其服役的核弹头数量可能会从2024年的“600多点”增加到1000枚以上。中国还在建造更安静的潜艇，引发了人们对潜在台湾冲突升级为中美核对抗的担忧。尽管中国在2024年暂停了与美国的核军控谈判以抗议对台军售，但分析人士预计中国未来将进行更多常规测试，以验证设备并展示决心。前官员建议，美国及其盟友必须实现自身威慑能力的现代化，并恢复将军备控制作为遏制中国扩张的工具。
尽管中国在测试前通知了该地区的部分政府，但此次发射仍招致了强烈的批评。此次发射恰逢美国在夏威夷周边领导联合海军演习以及安卡拉北约峰会前夕，美国国务院称这种不透明的核武器扩张“令人极大担忧”，并敦促中国承诺对此类发射进行例行通报。澳大利亚外交部长黄英贤称这次测试具有“破坏稳定性”。尽管联合国安理会的其他四个常任理事国也定期试射潜艇导弹，但鉴于中国迅速扩张的核武库以及对台湾的军事压力，这次测试将加剧该地区对中国意图以及美国保护盟友能力的担忧。
On July 6th, China announced a rare test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile from a nuclear-missile submarine (boomer) into the Pacific Ocean, unnerving the region. Although the Pentagon estimates Chinese boomers have patrolled for a decade, China's government had never confirmed it. Historically, China only tested long-range ballistic missiles over the Pacific twice, in 1980 and 2024, both launched from land. The latest sea-based test, likely featuring a JL-2 missile with a 7,200km range or a JL-3 with a 10,000km range, indicates China is closer to achieving a credible nuclear triad of land, sea, and air launch capabilities. Experts predict China will complete this triad next year by test-firing an air-launched ballistic missile.
This launch aligns with the Pentagon's warning that China is expanding its nuclear arsenal, projecting that operational warheads could grow to over 1,000 by 2030, up from the low 600s in 2024. China is also constructing quieter submarines, raising fears of escalation in a potential Taiwan conflict. While China suspended nuclear-arms talks with the US in 2024 to protest arms sales to Taiwan, analysts expect China to conduct more regular tests to validate equipment and demonstrate resolve. Former officials suggest that the US and its allies must modernize their deterrents and revive arms control measures to constrain China's buildup.
Although China notified some regional governments prior to the test, the launch drew strong criticism. Occurring during US-led naval exercises around Hawaii and ahead of a NATO summit in Ankara, the US State Department labeled the opaque buildup as a "great concern" and urged routine notifications. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong called the test "destabilising." While the other four permanent UN Security Council members regularly test-fire missiles, China's rapid expansion and pressure on Taiwan heighten regional anxieties regarding Chinese intentions and the security of US allies.
Source: A rare Chinese missile test unnerves Asian neighbours
Subtitle: China moves a step closer to having an operational “nuclear triad”
Dateline: Jul 09, 2026 05:22 AM | Taipei